Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.2% vs 48.6%). Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Foligno 48.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 56.7%
Defensive zone
Minten 57.3%
Neutral zone
Minten 50.3%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Minten
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Minten
Foligno
Last 6: Minten 3-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
3
Minten
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Minten
Foligno
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
48.3% (2,840)
+0.6%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
52.3% (731)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
44.0% (457)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Minten shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,512).
Home / Away
Minten
Foligno
Home
51.9% (476)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
44.4% (475)
47.2% (2,017)
By Period
Minten
Foligno
P1
44.4%
47.8%
P2
46.8%
50.5%
P3
52.3%
48.2%
OT
83.3%
29.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |