Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Minten on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Minten wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.8% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 63.1%
Defensive zone
Minten 66.1%
Neutral zone
Minten 64.4%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Minten
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Minten
Kapanen
Last 7: Minten 5-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
2
Minten
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
3
0
Minten
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (651)
46.5% (527)
+3.1%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
54.8% (42)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (45)
39.5% (38)
-3.9%
On power play, Kapanen has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Minten is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (269).
Minten shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Minten
Kapanen
Home
52.4% (349)
47.0% (315)
Away
45.3% (397)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Minten
Kapanen
P1
45.4%
41.6%
P2
47.1%
50.7%
P3
52.3%
47.6%
OT
83.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:08 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |