Frederick Gaudreau vs Matt Duchene
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Duchene 51.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 84.3%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 51.1%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Gaudreau
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Gaudreau
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Gaudreau
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
51.1% (366)
-6.2%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
61.5% (65)
-29.7%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
16.7% (6)
+21.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Gaudreau shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Duchene
Home
42.6% (277)
51.7% (201)
Away
43.1% (288)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Gaudreau
Duchene
P1
44.1%
49.0%
P2
44.7%
57.1%
P3
39.5%
49.2%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |