Scouting Report
Gabriel Vilardi holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Vilardi wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.8% vs Donato 44.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 55.0%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 50.7%
Neutral zone
Donato 51.6%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Vilardi
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Vilardi
Donato
Last 9: Vilardi 4-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Vilardi
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Vilardi
Donato
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vilardi
3
2
Vilardi
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (1,054)
44.0% (1,218)
+1.7%
Power Play
51.0% (196)
46.0% (248)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (27)
41.7% (12)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Vilardi has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Vilardi is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (936).
Vilardi shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Donato
Home
47.1% (660)
47.2% (743)
Away
46.0% (617)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Vilardi
Donato
P1
49.4%
43.8%
P2
43.7%
44.9%
P3
46.7%
43.7%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.6%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |