Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Vilardi wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (-15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 60.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.9%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 52.5%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Vilardi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (70)
58.7% (858)
-17.3%
Power Play
48.0% (25)
55.8% (285)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
-62.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +62.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vilardi is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (69).
Vilardi shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Hertl
Home
40.0% (50)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.7% (46)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Vilardi
Hertl
P1
48.6%
52.4%
P2
37.1%
63.9%
P3
41.7%
58.5%
Final 5 min
52.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
38.0%▼
43.5%
42.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |