Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Vilardi wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-11 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Vilardi 80.9%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 93.1%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 89.3%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Vilardi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
21
(32 meetings)
11
21
Vilardi
Hertl
Last 10: Vilardi 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Vilardi
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Vilardi
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
9
Vilardi
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (1,054)
53.9% (8,303)
-8.2%
Power Play
51.0% (196)
59.2% (1,995)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (27)
46.3% (806)
+1.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vilardi is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (936).
Vilardi shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Hertl
Home
47.1% (660)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
46.0% (617)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Vilardi
Hertl
P1
49.4%
53.6%
P2
43.7%
54.2%
P3
46.7%
55.3%
OT
33.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |