Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Lapierre wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 43.4% vs Cates 45.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 57.0%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 60.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.5%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Lapierre
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lapierre
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lapierre
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (264)
45.5% (756)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
42.1% (114)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.7% (47)
-44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lapierre is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Lapierre shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Cates
Home
44.2% (138)
46.2% (468)
Away
37.6% (133)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Lapierre
Cates
P1
55.2%
46.0%
P2
40.6%
47.5%
P3
26.5%
42.1%
Final 5 min
35.3%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
50.0%▲
41.0%
41.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |