Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lapierre wins 37.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 40.3% vs Cates 43.2% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Lapierre 68.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 57.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.5%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Lapierre
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lapierre
Cates
Last 10: Lapierre 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
2
1
Lapierre
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Lapierre
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
Lapierre
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (660)
44.1% (2,786)
-5.0%
Power Play
28.6% (14)
42.9% (254)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
34.9% (373)
-34.9%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lapierre is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Lapierre shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Cates
Home
39.1% (366)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
38.5% (309)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Lapierre
Cates
P1
47.2%
44.5%
P2
38.7%
43.7%
P3
29.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
33.3%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
50.0%▲
41.0%
38.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:03 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |