Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barbashev wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Staal 55.3% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Barbashev leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 62.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 84.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 79.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 79.0%
21.0%
79.0%
Barbashev
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Barbashev
Staal
Last 10: Barbashev 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Barbashev
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
5
4
Barbashev
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
3
2
Barbashev
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,740)
55.9% (14,654)
-13.9%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
62.7% (1,762)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
47.9% (2,907)
-11.2%
On power play, Staal has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Barbashev is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Barbashev shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Staal
Home
42.4% (934)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Barbashev
Staal
P1
40.8%
55.2%
P2
42.3%
55.9%
P3
42.2%
54.8%
OT
60.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
24.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 06:40 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 06:44 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 8, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 11:46 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |