Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 47.8% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 64.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 60.4%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 59.0%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Compher
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Compher
Sourdif
Last 7: Compher 2-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Compher
Sourdif
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
3
Compher
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Compher
Sourdif
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (5,743)
44.3% (585)
+4.3%
Power Play
52.6% (682)
50.0% (24)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (1,426)
61.5% (13)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Compher is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,200).
Compher shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Home / Away
Compher
Sourdif
Home
49.0% (3,917)
43.6% (321)
Away
46.6% (3,934)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Compher
Sourdif
P1
49.0%
41.9%
P2
47.2%
44.3%
P3
47.4%
47.9%
OT
40.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
47.8%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:36 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |