Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.4%
Defensive zone
Compher 83.6%
Neutral zone
Compher 59.1%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Compher
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Compher
MacKinnon
Last 6: Compher 5-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
2
0
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
2
0
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (784)
49.7% (1,038)
+3.4%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
63.7% (157)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (95)
34.4% (32)
+2.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Compher is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Compher shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Compher
MacKinnon
Home
51.3% (452)
53.1% (618)
Away
51.5% (458)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Compher
MacKinnon
P1
54.9%
49.3%
P2
49.0%
53.0%
P3
50.6%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |