Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.4%
Defensive zone
Compher 61.9%
Neutral zone
Compher 51.8%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Compher
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Compher
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Compher
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (784)
55.7% (856)
-2.6%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
57.5% (233)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (95)
50.0% (144)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Compher is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Compher shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Compher
O'Reilly
Home
51.3% (452)
55.5% (616)
Away
51.5% (458)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Compher
O'Reilly
P1
54.9%
58.1%
P2
49.0%
54.9%
P3
50.6%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |