Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.3% vs Novak 42.5% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 84.5%
Defensive zone
Compher 67.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Compher
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Compher
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Compher
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (784)
40.4% (408)
+12.7%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
45.5% (33)
+9.3%
On even strength, Compher has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Compher is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Compher shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Compher
Novak
Home
51.3% (452)
42.0% (212)
Away
51.5% (458)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Compher
Novak
P1
54.9%
41.9%
P2
49.0%
39.3%
P3
50.6%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |