Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 62.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 60.3% vs Tavares 56.8% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 54.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Miller
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Miller
Tavares
Last 8: Miller 4-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Miller
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
62.0% (582)
57.7% (975)
+4.3%
Power Play
65.9% (126)
56.0% (250)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (71)
52.2% (23)
-1.5%
On power play, Miller has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Miller is 62.3% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Miller shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Miller
Tavares
Home
63.0% (416)
57.4% (636)
Away
60.1% (363)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Miller
Tavares
P1
60.7%
57.5%
P2
63.9%
56.9%
P3
60.2%
57.5%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
64.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |