Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 54.4%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 46 meetings). Miller wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs Tavares 54.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 60-54 in 114 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 53.7%
Defensive zone
Miller 57.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Miller
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
54
(114 meetings)
60
54
Miller
Tavares
Last 10: Miller 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
19
27
Miller
Tavares
46 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
24
18
Miller
Tavares
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
17
9
Miller
Tavares
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
54.0% (16,169)
+1.3%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
56.4% (4,298)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
50.5% (624)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Miller shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Miller
Tavares
Home
56.0% (4,622)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Miller
Tavares
P1
54.8%
55.0%
P2
55.7%
54.1%
P3
54.1%
54.0%
OT
62.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |