Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 17 meetings). Miller wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 93.9%
Defensive zone
Miller 72.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 68.7%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Miller
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Miller
Dowd
Last 10: Miller 8-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
15
2
Miller
Dowd
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
9
Miller
Dowd
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
52.3% (6,036)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
56.1% (164)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
44.1% (1,638)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Miller is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,958).
Miller shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Miller
Dowd
Home
56.0% (4,622)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Miller
Dowd
P1
54.8%
51.5%
P2
55.7%
50.4%
P3
54.1%
50.3%
OT
62.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 5, 2025 | OT | 03:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |