Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 44 meetings). Miller wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 66-63 in 129 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 57.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.7%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
66
(129 meetings)
63
66
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Miller 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
26
18
Miller
O'Reilly
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
22
30
Miller
O'Reilly
52 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
18
Miller
O'Reilly
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
56.2% (15,290)
-0.9%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
58.7% (3,457)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
51.4% (2,826)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
56.0% (4,622)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
54.8%
55.6%
P2
55.7%
57.0%
P3
54.1%
55.0%
OT
62.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
55.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |