Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 60.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 60.3% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 70.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 71.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 69.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Miller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Miller
Stamkos
Last 5: Miller 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Miller
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Miller
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
62.0% (582)
57.1% (368)
+4.9%
Power Play
65.9% (126)
55.2% (96)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (71)
50.0% (10)
+0.7%
On power play, Miller has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Miller is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Miller shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Miller
Stamkos
Home
63.0% (416)
53.9% (230)
Away
60.1% (363)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Miller
Stamkos
P1
60.7%
56.7%
P2
63.9%
54.1%
P3
60.2%
59.2%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
64.4%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |