Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Miller wins 62.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 60.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.4%
Defensive zone
Miller 72.7%
Neutral zone
Miller 59.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Miller
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.0% (582)
58.7% (858)
+3.3%
Power Play
65.9% (126)
55.8% (285)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (71)
62.9% (35)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 62.3% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
63.0% (416)
60.1% (599)
Away
60.1% (363)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
60.7%
52.4%
P2
63.9%
63.9%
P3
60.2%
58.5%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
64.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |