Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 54.3%). Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings). Miller wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 41-33 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 54.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 54.8%
Neutral zone
Miller 51.6%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
33
(74 meetings)
41
33
Miller
Hertl
Last 10: Miller 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
15
17
Miller
Hertl
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
16
9
Miller
Hertl
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
10
7
Miller
Hertl
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
53.9% (8,303)
+1.4%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
59.2% (1,995)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
46.3% (806)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
56.0% (4,622)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
54.8%
53.6%
P2
55.7%
54.2%
P3
54.1%
55.3%
OT
62.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |