Scouting Report
Jack Drury holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Drury wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 57.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Drury
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Drury
Hertl
Last 10: Drury 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Drury
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
2
0
Drury
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drury
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (1,998)
53.9% (8,290)
+4.2%
Power Play
58.5% (118)
59.3% (1,991)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
53.0% (300)
46.3% (806)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Drury has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drury is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,580).
Drury shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,945).
Home / Away
Drury
Hertl
Home
58.2% (1,222)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
56.7% (1,194)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Drury
Hertl
P1
56.0%
53.6%
P2
58.8%
54.1%
P3
57.3%
55.3%
OT
62.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
72.0%▲
59.0%
57.5%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Jack Drury |