Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 48.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 53.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eichel
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Eichel
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eichel
1
0
Eichel
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (909)
45.5% (756)
+2.7%
Power Play
55.2% (67)
42.1% (114)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (97)
44.7% (47)
-3.5%
On power play, Eichel has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (761).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
48.0% (564)
46.2% (468)
Away
47.9% (509)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
49.8%
46.0%
P2
48.6%
47.5%
P3
46.7%
42.1%
OT
37.5%
18.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |