Scouting Report
Jack Eichel holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Eichel wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eichel 45.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Eichel 51.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 72.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 65.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Eichel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
15
(23 meetings)
8
15
Eichel
Cates
Last 10: Eichel 2-8 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Eichel
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
7
Eichel
Cates
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Eichel
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eichel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (8,513)
44.1% (2,786)
+0.7%
Power Play
52.7% (929)
42.9% (254)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (550)
34.9% (373)
+2.9%
On power play, Eichel has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Eichel is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (7,079).
Eichel shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Eichel
Cates
Home
45.8% (4,954)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
44.5% (5,038)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Eichel
Cates
P1
45.5%
44.5%
P2
45.8%
43.7%
P3
44.1%
41.2%
OT
44.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.1%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eichel
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.1%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Jack Eichel |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Jack Eichel |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:52 | Neutral | Jack Eichel |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |