Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Finley wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.7% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 53.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 79.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 56.2%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Finley
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Finley
Stenlund
Last 5: Finley 4-1 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Finley
1
0
Finley
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Finley
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (270)
56.2% (650)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
53.2% (47)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (32)
51.6% (312)
+1.5%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Finley is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Finley shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Finley
Stenlund
Home
53.8% (199)
56.9% (483)
Away
46.2% (117)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Finley
Stenlund
P1
54.7%
54.2%
P2
47.4%
53.2%
P3
51.8%
56.9%
OT
50.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
49.4%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.9%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |