Scouting Report
Jack Finley holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Finley wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.2% vs Dowd 48.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 52.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 73.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 79.0%
21.0%
79.0%
Finley
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Finley
Dowd
Last 6: Finley 0-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (279)
51.0% (671)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
41.5% (224)
+10.0%
On power play, Finley has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Finley is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Finley shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Finley
Dowd
Home
53.8% (199)
48.2% (471)
Away
44.9% (127)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Finley
Dowd
P1
52.8%
48.3%
P2
47.5%
46.8%
P3
51.3%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
62.0%▲
51.5%
50.3%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |