Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Finley wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 78.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Finley
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Finley
Dowd
Last 6: Finley 0-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Finley
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (284)
52.3% (6,036)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
56.1% (164)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
44.1% (1,638)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Finley has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Finley is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Finley shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Finley
Dowd
Home
53.8% (199)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
45.5% (132)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Finley
Dowd
P1
52.8%
51.5%
P2
47.5%
50.4%
P3
51.6%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
62.0%▲
51.5%
50.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |