Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Tavares 54.4% (-18.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 81.9%
Defensive zone
Hughes 57.9%
Neutral zone
Hughes 70.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Hughes
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Hughes
Tavares
Last 10: Hughes 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
5
1
Hughes
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Hughes
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
7
Hughes
Tavares
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
54.0% (16,169)
-18.0%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
56.4% (4,298)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
50.5% (624)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Hughes
Tavares
Home
36.8% (1,681)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Hughes
Tavares
P1
36.9%
55.0%
P2
33.4%
54.1%
P3
38.2%
54.0%
OT
37.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
34.1%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 09:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |