Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Staal 55.3% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 18-6 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 95.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 87.9%
Neutral zone
Hughes 95.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 92.6%
92.6%
7.4%
Hughes
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
18
(24 meetings)
6
18
Hughes
Staal
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
5
4
Hughes
Staal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
9
Hughes
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
5
Hughes
Staal
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
55.9% (14,654)
-19.9%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
62.7% (1,762)
-23.9%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
47.9% (2,907)
-16.9%
On power play, Staal has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Hughes
Staal
Home
36.8% (1,681)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Hughes
Staal
P1
36.9%
55.2%
P2
33.4%
55.9%
P3
38.2%
54.8%
OT
37.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
34.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 14, 2020 | 1 | 11:23 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 14, 2020 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |