Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 33.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs Carlsson 44.6% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 58.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 55.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 55.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Hughes
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hughes
Carlsson
Last 5: Hughes 2-3 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Hughes
Carlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
45.0% (695)
-8.3%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
46.4% (84)
-32.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
32.9% (85)
+0.4%
On power play, Carlsson has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Hughes shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carlsson
Home
35.8% (159)
42.5% (435)
Away
36.5% (159)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Hughes
Carlsson
P1
42.3%
45.3%
P2
28.2%
38.7%
P3
37.2%
48.5%
Final 5 min
27.5%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |