Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Carlsson 41.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 56.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 80.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 68.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Hughes
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Hughes
Carlsson
Last 10: Hughes 6-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
3
Hughes
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
40.9% (1,878)
-4.9%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
42.9% (156)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
34.7% (121)
-3.7%
On even strength, Carlsson has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carlsson
Home
36.8% (1,681)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Hughes
Carlsson
P1
36.9%
43.3%
P2
33.4%
36.2%
P3
38.2%
43.3%
OT
37.5%
40.7%
Final 5 min
34.1%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |