Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs Barzal 41.9% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 56.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 54.9%
Neutral zone
Hughes 61.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
40.9% (469)
-4.2%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
34.2% (38)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
28.6% (7)
+4.7%
On power play, Barzal has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
35.8% (159)
39.2% (250)
Away
36.5% (159)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
42.3%
46.3%
P2
28.2%
36.7%
P3
37.2%
38.5%
Final 5 min
27.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |