Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Barzal 42.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 84.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 89.2%
Neutral zone
Hughes 72.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Hughes
Barzal
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Hughes
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
5
Hughes
Barzal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
41.9% (3,571)
-5.9%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
43.4% (205)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
42.3% (26)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,243).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
36.8% (1,681)
43.2% (1,901)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
36.9%
40.6%
P2
33.4%
44.6%
P3
38.2%
41.1%
OT
37.5%
27.6%
Final 5 min
34.1%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:54 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 09:44 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |