Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Cates 43.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 22-13 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 90.8%
Defensive zone
Hughes 64.2%
Neutral zone
Hughes 88.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Hughes
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
22
(35 meetings)
13
22
Hughes
Cates
Last 10: Hughes 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
6
5
Hughes
Cates
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
9
Hughes
Cates
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
5
8
Hughes
Cates
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
44.1% (2,786)
-8.1%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
42.9% (254)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
34.9% (373)
-3.9%
On even strength, Cates has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Hughes
Cates
Home
36.8% (1,681)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Hughes
Cates
P1
36.9%
44.5%
P2
33.4%
43.7%
P3
38.2%
41.2%
OT
37.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
34.1%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |