Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmberg on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Holmberg 46.0% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 79.1%
Defensive zone
Holmberg 63.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 60.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Hughes
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hughes
Holmberg
Last 8: Hughes 3-5 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Holmberg
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Hughes
Holmberg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
1
3
Hughes
Holmberg
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
45.3% (676)
-9.3%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
50.0% (22)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
45.9% (61)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Holmberg is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (510).
Home / Away
Hughes
Holmberg
Home
36.8% (1,681)
46.2% (422)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
44.5% (337)
By Period
Hughes
Holmberg
P1
36.9%
53.1%
P2
33.4%
40.9%
P3
38.2%
42.3%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
34.1%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Holmberg
36.0%▼
45.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:22 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |