Scouting Report
Trevor Zegras holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Zegras 39.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 50.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 51.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 50.1%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Hughes
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hughes
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Hughes
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
39.0% (1,703)
-3.0%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
38.5% (148)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
25.0% (8)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Hughes has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Hughes
Zegras
Home
36.8% (1,681)
40.5% (908)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Hughes
Zegras
P1
36.9%
40.0%
P2
33.4%
38.6%
P3
38.2%
38.2%
OT
37.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
34.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |