Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Tavares 56.8% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 68.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 86.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 72.3%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
McBain
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McBain
Tavares
Last 9: McBain 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
McBain
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
McBain
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
57.7% (975)
-5.2%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
56.0% (250)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
52.2% (23)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
McBain
Tavares
Home
52.4% (309)
57.4% (636)
Away
49.7% (326)
57.2% (612)
By Period
McBain
Tavares
P1
54.0%
57.5%
P2
52.7%
56.9%
P3
46.5%
57.5%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | John Tavares |