Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Tavares 54.4% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 64.9%
Defensive zone
McBain 76.8%
Neutral zone
McBain 57.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
McBain
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
McBain
Tavares
Last 10: McBain 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
4
McBain
Tavares
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
4
McBain
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
54.0% (16,169)
-5.9%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
56.4% (4,298)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
50.5% (624)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
McBain
Tavares
Home
49.1% (1,379)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
McBain
Tavares
P1
47.1%
55.0%
P2
47.4%
54.1%
P3
45.4%
54.0%
OT
37.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:08 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |