Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 70.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 74.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 65.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McBain
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
56.2% (989)
-3.7%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
66.0% (159)
-23.9%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
42.7% (253)
-6.5%
On power play, Staal has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
52.4% (309)
55.4% (699)
Away
49.7% (326)
54.4% (702)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
54.0%
55.7%
P2
52.7%
54.7%
P3
46.5%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jack McBain |