Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 62.9%
Defensive zone
McBain 60.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 59.0%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
McBain
Staal
Last 10: McBain 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
McBain
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
5
McBain
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
55.9% (14,654)
-7.8%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
62.7% (1,762)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
47.9% (2,907)
-12.3%
On power play, Staal has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
49.1% (1,379)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
47.1%
55.2%
P2
47.4%
55.9%
P3
45.4%
54.8%
OT
37.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |