Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Eller 52.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 72.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 59.4%
Neutral zone
McBain 59.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
McBain
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McBain
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
McBain
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
52.8% (742)
-6.5%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
67.6% (34)
-30.1%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
46.2% (156)
-8.4%
On power play, Eller has a +30.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McBain
Eller
Home
50.6% (330)
54.5% (448)
Away
39.7% (320)
50.2% (484)
By Period
McBain
Eller
P1
45.4%
52.8%
P2
44.5%
50.9%
P3
45.7%
53.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.2%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jack McBain |