Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Frost 56.4% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 63.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 88.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 75.2%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
McBain
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McBain
Frost
Last 5: McBain 1-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
McBain
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McBain
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
56.0% (755)
-3.5%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
60.1% (173)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
88.9% (9)
-52.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
McBain
Frost
Home
52.4% (309)
57.3% (497)
Away
49.7% (326)
56.8% (440)
By Period
McBain
Frost
P1
54.0%
60.2%
P2
52.7%
56.0%
P3
46.5%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |