Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Frost 50.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 59.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 83.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 65.9%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
McBain
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
McBain
Frost
Last 10: McBain 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
McBain
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McBain
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
49.7% (3,652)
-1.6%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
55.4% (632)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
55.0% (40)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
McBain
Frost
Home
49.1% (1,379)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
McBain
Frost
P1
47.1%
51.2%
P2
47.4%
51.3%
P3
45.4%
48.8%
OT
37.5%
64.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |