Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 55.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 59.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 54.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
McBain
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McBain
Bjugstad
Last 7: McBain 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
McBain
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
McBain
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
49.7% (292)
+2.8%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
50.0% (6)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
47.2% (36)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
McBain shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
McBain
Bjugstad
Home
52.4% (309)
48.7% (193)
Away
49.7% (326)
50.4% (141)
By Period
McBain
Bjugstad
P1
54.0%
41.5%
P2
52.7%
57.3%
P3
46.5%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Jack McBain |