Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 64.5%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 51.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
McBain
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
McBain
Bjugstad
Last 9: McBain 5-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McBain
Bjugstad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
McBain
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
48.6% (6,646)
-0.5%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
55.2% (829)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
44.3% (614)
-8.7%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McBain is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (995).
McBain shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
McBain
Bjugstad
Home
49.1% (1,379)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
McBain
Bjugstad
P1
47.1%
48.9%
P2
47.4%
49.1%
P3
45.4%
48.5%
OT
37.5%
61.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Jack McBain |