Jack McBain vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 53.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 72.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 64.0%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
46.0% (250)
+6.5%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
70.6% (17)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
31.8% (22)
+4.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
52.4% (309)
50.3% (175)
Away
49.7% (326)
40.4% (114)
By Period
McBain
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.0%
48.5%
P2
52.7%
45.9%
P3
46.5%
46.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Jack McBain |