Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Carrick 54.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 55.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 68.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 76.6%
23.4%
76.6%
McBain
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McBain
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
55.5% (470)
-3.0%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
66.7% (3)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
50.0% (58)
-13.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
McBain shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
McBain
Carrick
Home
52.4% (309)
58.6% (261)
Away
49.7% (326)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McBain
Carrick
P1
54.0%
55.9%
P2
52.7%
53.5%
P3
46.5%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |