Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McBain wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Carrick 52.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 75.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 94.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 87.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 87.7%
12.3%
87.7%
McBain
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
McBain
Carrick
Last 10: McBain 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
5
2
McBain
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
52.2% (2,544)
-4.1%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
61.3% (75)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
50.8% (435)
-15.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McBain is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (995).
McBain shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
McBain
Carrick
Home
49.1% (1,379)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
McBain
Carrick
P1
47.1%
51.8%
P2
47.4%
52.3%
P3
45.4%
52.6%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Jack McBain |