Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.0% vs 50.5%). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Aho 50.5% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 72.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 63.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McBain
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
50.5% (878)
+2.0%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
53.5% (144)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
44.3% (61)
-8.1%
On power play, Aho has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
52.4% (309)
53.8% (571)
Away
49.7% (326)
46.9% (512)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
54.0%
49.0%
P2
52.7%
51.7%
P3
46.5%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |