Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 50.5%). McBain wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Aho 50.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 63.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 70.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McBain
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (504)
50.5% (647)
+2.1%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
54.2% (131)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (42)
38.1% (42)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
51.8% (251)
53.9% (445)
Away
50.5% (307)
46.4% (375)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
50.9%
48.7%
P2
53.9%
51.4%
P3
48.1%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |