Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 82.8%
Defensive zone
McBain 61.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 62.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
McBain
Aho
Last 10: McBain 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
5
McBain
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McBain
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.1%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
58.9% (1,310)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
46.5% (465)
-10.9%
On power play, Aho has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
49.1% (1,379)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
47.1%
51.1%
P2
47.4%
52.1%
P3
45.4%
50.8%
OT
37.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |