Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 74.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 86.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 75.2%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
McBain
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McBain
Stamkos
Last 8: McBain 2-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
6
McBain
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
57.1% (368)
-4.6%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
55.2% (96)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
50.0% (10)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
McBain shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
McBain
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (309)
53.9% (230)
Away
49.7% (326)
59.0% (244)
By Period
McBain
Stamkos
P1
54.0%
56.7%
P2
52.7%
54.1%
P3
46.5%
59.2%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |